Vistra Corp.

Business description

Vistra Corp. (VST) is a premier independent power producer (IPP) and retail electricity provider operating across 18 states and D.C., serving approximately 5 million residential, commercial, and industrial customers.

Key financials

• Price: $168.98 (as of close on 07/23/2026)
• 12-Mo Target: $202.00 (CFRA Buy)
• Market Cap: ~$52.41B
• Operating EPS 2026E: $8.86
• Operating EPS 2027E: $11.28
• H-Score: 40 (TBI multi factor score from 07/20/2026 CSV)

Competitive moat

Scale advantage in competitive power markets (ERCOT and PJM) with a balanced model combining stable retail cash flows and dispatchable generation assets secured by long-term nuclear and gas PPAs.

Recent developments

• Cogentrix Acquisition: Advancing toward a 2H 2026 close for the 5,500 MW natural gas portfolio, expanding dispatchable footprint in key growth regions.
• Helix Digital Infrastructure Venture: Launched a major strategic partnership in June 2026 alongside KKR, NVIDIA, and the Kuwait Investment Authority with $10B+ in capital, designating VST as the preferred power provider.
• Nuclear PPA Execution: Securing ~3.8 GW of 20-year nuclear PPAs with AWS and Meta, de-risking long-term earnings and providing structural cash flow stability.
• PJM Capacity Clearing: Cleared ~10,924 MW in PJM's 2028/2029 BRA at $325/MW-day, establishing a strong earnings baseline.

Investment risks / red flags

• PJM Regulatory & Market Dynamics: Navigating evolving FERC rules, co-location frameworks, and BRA price auction volatility.
• Integration Execution: Successfully closing and integrating the Cogentrix fleet while scaling new infrastructure ventures.
• Macro / AI Demand Volatility: Sensitivity to power price swings and shifts in tech sector demand trajectories.

H-Score signals

• TBI multi factor score: 40 (CFRA recommendation: Buy, 4-STARS)

Theme exposure

• [[AI Infrastructure]]
• [[Electrification]]
• [[Renewable Energy]]

Related

• [[Utilities]]
• [[Constellation Energy Corporation]]
• [[NextEra Energy, Inc.]]
• [[American Electric Power Company Inc.]]